高感染率下如常生活,英国人衡量“自由的代价”

e9ab98e6849fe69f93e78e87e4b88be5a682e5b8b8e7949fe6b4bbefbc8ce88bb1e59bbde4babae8a1a1e9878fe887aae794b1e79a84e4bba3e4bbb7 • 高感染率下如常生活,英国人衡量“自由的代价” 口罩, 封锁, 新冠病毒, 新增病例, 疫情, 疫苗

高感染率下如常生活,英国人衡量“自由的代价”

Britons, Unfazed by High Covid Rates, Weigh Their ‘Price of Freedom’

周五在英国雷丁举行的雷丁音乐节上的音乐会观众。伦敦国王学院遗传流行病学教授蒂姆·斯佩克特说:“我们的感染率真的很高,但我们似乎并不在乎。”
周五在英国雷丁举行的雷丁音乐节上的音乐会观众。伦敦国王学院遗传流行病学教授蒂姆·斯佩克特说:“我们的感染率真的很高,但我们似乎并不在乎。” DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
LONDON — Nearly 60,000 soccer fans packed London’s Emirates Stadium last Sunday to watch Chelsea outplay Arsenal. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s musical “Cinderella” made its glittering debut in the West End after multiple Covid-related delays. On the subway, where masks are still mandatory, half of the riders go barefaced.
伦敦——上周日,近6万名足球迷挤进伦敦酋长球场(Emirates Stadium)观看切尔西战胜阿森纳的比赛。安德鲁·劳埃德·韦伯(Andrew Lloyd Webber)的音乐剧《灰姑娘》(Cinderella)在多次因新冠疫情推延后,终于在西区(West End)闪亮登场。地铁仍然强制要求乘客戴口罩,但一半的乘客都露着脸。
All of this at a time when Britain is reporting more than 30,000 new coronavirus cases a day, hospitals are coming under renewed strain, and preliminary data shows that the protection provided by the vaccines ebbs several months after the second dose.
英国每天报告超过3万新冠新增病例之际,所有这一切都让医院承受了新的压力,初步数据显示,疫苗提供的保护作用在第二剂接种几个月后会减弱
Such is the strange new phase of Britain’s pandemic: The public has moved on, even if the virus has not. Given that Britain has been at the vanguard of so many previous coronavirus developments — from incubating variants to rolling out vaccines — experts say this could be a glimpse into the future for other countries.
大流行在英国进入了如此奇怪的新阶段:即使病毒没有离开,公众也继续过日常生活。鉴于此前英国在许多新冠病毒研究进展方面一直处于领先地位——从孵化变种到推出疫苗——专家表示,对其他国家来说,也许可以透过英国感受到未来的生活。
“We don’t seem to care that we have these really high infection rates,” said Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London who has been leading a major study of Covid-19 symptoms. “It looks like we’re just accepting it now — that this is the price of freedom.”
“我们的感染率真的很高,但我们似乎并不在乎,”伦敦国王学院(King’s College London)遗传流行病学教授蒂姆·斯佩克特(Tim Spector)说,他一直在领导一项针对新冠症状的主要研究。“看起来我们现在开始接受它了——这是自由的代价。”
Some of that equanimity may stem from the fact that Britain’s case rate, while high, has not yet risen anywhere near the level that government officials predicted when they lifted virtually all Covid restrictions last month. Some may be because so many Britons are vaccinated, fewer serious cases are being reported. And some of it may simply reflect fatigue, after 17 months of baleful headlines and stifling lockdowns.
这样的淡定态度有可能部分源于一个事实,即英国的感染率虽然很高,但远未上升到政府官员上个月预测的解除所有新冠限制措施下会达到的感染水平。也有可能是因为已经有很多英国人接种了疫苗,重症病例较少。还有可能是大家只是倦怠了,毕竟可怕的头条新闻和令人窒息的封锁持续了17个月的时间。
“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” said Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh. “It’s really difficult to ask people not to mix for a prolonged period, especially if there is no solution.”
“有一种我们终于可以喘口气的感觉;我们可以开始努力找回我们失去的东西,”爱丁堡大学(University of Edinburgh)全球公共卫生项目负责人德维·斯里达尔(Devi Sridhar)说。“一直要求人们不要聚集真的很难,尤其是在没有解决方案的情况下。”
上周在伦敦南部举行的水晶宫队和布伦特福德队之间的英超联赛比赛中的球迷。公众在遵守遏制病毒传播措施方面似乎逐渐掉以轻心。
上周在伦敦南部举行的水晶宫队和布伦特福德队之间的英超联赛比赛中的球迷。公众在遵守遏制病毒传播措施方面似乎逐渐掉以轻心。 JUSTIN TALLIS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
With nearly 80 percent of the adult population fully vaccinated and the virus still circulating widely, Professor Sridhar said, Britain may be a model for other countries of “whether you can manage Covid in a sustainable way.” The evidence, she added, was inconclusive because Britain still faces critical challenges, like the reopening of schools on Wednesday.
斯里达尔教授说,在近80%的成年人已接种疫苗且病毒仍在广泛传播的情况下,就“是否能够以可持续的方式管理新冠”的议题上,英国可能成为其他国家的模型。她还说,证据尚无定论,因为英国仍面临严峻挑战,例如学校将在周三开学。
That will almost certainly drive rates up further, particularly because Britain has resisted vaccinating children and younger teenagers. But epidemiologists are loath to make specific predictions because many were proved wrong in July when cases fell immediately after “Freedom Day,” when most restrictions were lifted.
这几乎肯定会进一步推高感染率,尤其鉴于英国一直不愿为儿童和青少年接种疫苗。但流行病学家不愿做出具体预测,因为许多人的预测在7月被证明是错误的,在“自由日”(Freedom Day)之后,大多数限制都被取消了,病例数却立即下降了。
New cases, in any event, are a less all-important metric than they once were, given that a much smaller percentage of those infected end up in the hospital than in the earlier stages of the pandemic. Almost 970 people were admitted to hospitals on Aug. 24, the most recent date for which data is available. That compares with 4,583 on Jan. 12, the peak of the last wave of infections.
无论如何,新病例数不再是一个重要的指标,因为与大流行的早期阶段相比,感染者最终住院的比例要小得多。距离现在最近的可用数据显示,8月24日有近970人入院。相比之下,上一波感染的最高峰1月12日的住院人数为4583人。
Hospitalizations are rising, however, as is the fatality rate. Admissions last week were up 6.7 percent over the previous seven-day period, while deaths were up 12.3 percent, totaling 133 people on Saturday. With a backlog of patients with other illnesses, doctors say the National Health Service has little slack to cope with another influx of Covid victims.
然而,住院人数正在上升,死亡率也在上升。上周的入院人数比前一周增加了6.7%,而死亡人数增加了12.3%,周六共有133人死亡。由于其他疾病的患者仍在等待就医,医生们表示,如果涌入新一轮新冠患者,全民医疗服务体系(National Health Service)将几乎没有喘息的空间。
“We’ve found rising numbers of cases, and we are under a lot of pressure again,” said Susan Jain, a specialist in anesthesia and intensive therapy who works in the intensive care unit at the Homerton University Hospital in East London. “All our Covid cases are unvaccinated by choice.”
“我们发现病例数量在增加,我们再次面临很大压力,”在东伦敦霍默顿大学(Homerton University Hospital)医院重症监护室工作的麻醉和重症治疗专家苏珊·贾恩(Susan Jain)说。“我们所有的新冠病例都是自愿选择不接种疫苗。”
The government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, preoccupied with the chaotic military withdrawal from Afghanistan, has said little about the rising hospital numbers — or indeed about the pandemic at all — in recent weeks.
几周来,英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊(Boris Johnson)政府的注意力被阿富汗撤军的混乱局面占据,几乎没有提及住院人数的增加——或者根本没有提及大流行。
Relieved that the more gloomy predictions of spiraling cases have not materialized, the government argues that its strategy has been vindicated, with infections manageable because of the success of its vaccination campaign.
病例飙升的悲观预测并没有成为现实,政府感到松了一口气,认为其策略已得到证实,由于疫苗接种活动取得成功,感染是可控的。
The government’s policy on vaccinating younger teenagers is in flux, with no decision yet on whether to go ahead with a campaign to jab those 12 to 15, though Britain’s medical regulator has authorized a vaccine for this age group.
政府关于为年纪较小的青少年接种疫苗的政策不断变化,尚未决定是否继续开展针对12至15岁青少年的疫苗接种活动,尽管英国的医疗监管机构已批准为该年龄段人群接种疫苗。
今年春天,伦敦一家疫苗接种中心的新冠病毒疫苗。英国近80%的成年人口已接种疫苗。
今年春天,伦敦一家疫苗接种中心的新冠病毒疫苗。英国近80%的成年人口已接种疫苗。 DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
“The rollout of the vaccine program for adults has been incredibly impressive, but, for children and young people it has been frankly shambolic,” Camilla Kingdon, the president of the Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health, said this month.
皇家儿科与儿童卫生学院(Royal College of Pediatrics and Child Health)院长卡米拉·金登(Camilla Kingdon)本月表示:“针对成人的疫苗计划推出非常成功,但坦率地说,针对少年儿童的疫苗计划一直是混乱无序的。”
At the same time, public observance of measures to contain the spread of the virus seems to be slipping, a factor that some epidemiologists said accounted for Britain having a higher case rate than countries like France and Spain, where infections are now falling.
与此同时,公众在遵守遏制病毒传播措施方面似乎逐渐掉以轻心,一些流行病学家表示,这一因素导致英国的病例率高于法国西班牙等国家,这些国家的感染率目前正在下降。
“I do wear masks indoors in public places,” said Philip Crossley, 69, walking on a street in the northern city of Bradford. “I noticed a lot of people don’t. Maybe that’s not a big problem, but they still could carry the virus.”
“我确实在室内公共场所戴口罩,”69岁的菲利普·克罗斯利(Philip Crossley)走在北部城市布拉德福德的一条街道上时说。“我注意到很多人没有戴口罩。也许这不是什么大问题,但他们仍然可能携带病毒。”
Outside Downing Street, an anti-lockdown protester, Simon Parry, said he had never worn a mask on public transportation and had yet to be challenged.
在唐宁街外,反对封锁的抗议者西蒙·帕里(Simon Parry)说,他从未在公共交通工具上戴过口罩,也没有被人要求过。
“I get people looking at me like I want to kill my grandmother,” he conceded before adding that he thought the argument was moving his way and that one woman had recently shed her face mask after an exchange on the subway. “I make it my mission to get someone to take a mask off in the Tube,” he said.
他承认:“人们看着我就好像我要杀了我的祖母一样。”然后他说,他认为争论正在朝着他的方向发展,最近在地铁上,一名女子与他交流后摘下了口罩。他说:“我把让人们在地铁里摘下口罩当做我的使命。”
One government minister, Greg Hands, tweeted a picture of himself on the subway wearing a mask, but complained that only about half of the passengers around him were doing likewise.
一位政府部长格雷格·汉斯(Greg Hands)在Twitter上发了一张自己戴着口罩坐地铁的照片,但抱怨周围只有大约一半的乘客这样做。
The office of London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, said its data showed that 82 percent of passengers said they always wore face coverings on subway trains and buses, a solid number given the central government’s decision not to adopt a national mandate for face coverings on public transportation.
伦敦市长办公室的萨迪克·汗(Sadiq Khan)表示,其数据显示,82%的乘客表示他们始终在地铁和公共汽车上戴口罩,鉴于中央政府决定不在全国实施公共交通戴口罩的措施,这一数字很可观。
Other critics blame the government’s mixed messages, pointing to members of Mr. Johnson’s Conservative Party, many of whom abandoned their masks when they returned to a crowded chamber of Parliament recently to discuss Afghanistan. The government’s official position is that people should wear face coverings when confined indoors.
其他批评者指责政府的信息矛盾,将矛头指向约翰逊的保守党成员,其中许多人最近回到拥挤的议会会议厅讨论阿富汗问题时没有戴口罩。政府的官方立场是,人们在室内时应该戴口罩。
For some who objected to Britain’s recurring lockdowns, the return to normalcy was both welcome and overdue. But some said the tensions between freedom and security could easily resurface.
对于一些反对英国反复封锁的人来说,恢复正常是值得欢迎的,也早该这样做了。但有些人表示,自由与安全之间的紧张关系很容易重新出现。
上个月伦敦地铁的乘客。 伦敦市长办公室萨迪克·汗说,数据显示,82%的乘客表示他们始终在地铁和公共汽车上戴口罩。
上个月伦敦地铁的乘客。 伦敦市长办公室萨迪克·汗说,数据显示,82%的乘客表示他们始终在地铁和公共汽车上戴口罩。 MARTIN POPE/GETTY IMAGES
“The intensity has gone out of the debate, but it will come back if there is another wave,” said Jonathan Sumption, a former justice on Britain’s Supreme Court who has been an outspoken critic of the lockdowns.
英国最高法院前法官乔纳森·萨姆普森(Jonathan Sumption)始终直言不讳地批评封锁措施,他说:“辩论的激烈程度已减弱,但如果再出现一轮疫情,它还会卷土重来。”
“If it does come back,” he added, “we’ll then be in the position that even the vaccines don’t work. What is the exit route?”
“如果疫情重来,”他还说,“那么我们就会陷入即使疫苗也不起作用的境地。我们有什么退路?”

Aina J. Khan自英国布拉德福德对本文有报道贡献。

Mark Landler是《纽约时报》伦敦分社社长。他在为时报工作的27年间,曾任香港和法兰克福分社社长、白宫记者、外交记者、欧洲经济记者以及纽约商业记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @MarkLandler

Stephen Castle是《纽约时报》驻伦敦记者,广泛报道英国新闻,包括该国的政治和与欧洲的关系。欢迎在TwitterFacebook上关注他。

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